Latest news with #Stephen"Sarge"Guilfoyle
Miami Herald
11-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: 35% Tariff on Canada Spooks Investors
On TheStreet Pro Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle asks whether yesterday's tariff letter to Canada was one letter too many. You see, after President Trump shared the letter, which set a 35% tariff on goods not covered under the USMCA trade deal Trump brokered during his first term, futures fell. After all, we still don't have a deal with Europe, and if we're willing to go to 35% with one major partner, what's in store for our neighbors across the Atlantic? The president also told NBC News in a phone call with Kristen Welker that the "tariffs have been very well-received. The stock market hit a new high today." As of now, stock futures indicate that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will open around 0.6% lower. ThinkOrSwim Bonds, too, are lower, pushing yields higher across the curve. The U.S. 30-year treasury is priced to yield 4.9%, while the 10-year yields 4.38% and the 2-year yields 3.88%. Gold is higher by 1.26%, likely following along with bitcoin, which notched a new high yesterday and is even higher in early trading today. The cryptocurrency broke out of a nearly two-month consolidation and has been as high as 118,839 vs. the U.S. dollar. TradingView Yesterday, I asked whether Nvidia (NVDA) could push the market to new highs. And it did. Today, that stock is helping the market lower. Most of top stocks in the S&P 500, including Microsoft (MSFT) , Apple (AAPL) , Alphabet (GOOGL) , Meta (META) , and Tesla (TSLA) , are down by about 0.5%. Only Amazon (AMZN) is higher, also by 0.5%. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Market Today: Holiday Shortened Week Set to Continue Win Streak
Stock Market Today: Holiday Shortened Week Set to Continue Win Streak originally appeared on TheStreet. Can we make it six up days in a row? Or maybe we'll just be up all week to make it ten! Nothing surprises me in this market. Following a relatively quiet weekend, no big news out of the Middle East or Washington, pretty much all major futures that aren't energy-related are heading higher. There are a few new items to note today. First, the Canadian government has agreed to halt implementation of a digital-services tax that it was set to impose on U.S. tech companies. The move will allow trade talks to reconvene, with officials saying that they hope to have a deal announced by July will the Fed or won't the Fed raise rates at its July meeting? Over on TheStreet Pro, Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle reports that there is growing dissension among Fed governors over rate cuts. While Chair Powell prefers a wait and see approach, other members of the Federal Reserve Board are beginning to suggest that a rate cut is in order. Sarge also notes that Fed Futures are pricing in an 82% probability of no cut in July, but a 76% likelihood of a cut in September as well as high probabilities for additional cuts that could total 0.75% by year end. As the tax bill makes its way through the Senate, the prospect of lower taxes plus lower borrowing rates continues to push stocks Market Today: Holiday Shortened Week Set to Continue Win Streak first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 30, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 30, 2025, where it first appeared.
Miami Herald
30-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: Holiday Shortened Week Set to Continue Win Streak
Can we make it six up days in a row? Or maybe we'll just be up all week to make it ten! Nothing surprises me in this market. Following a relatively quiet weekend, no big news out of the Middle East or Washington, pretty much all major futures that aren't energy-related are heading higher. ThinkOrSwim There are a few new items to note today. First, the Canadian government has agreed to halt implementation of a digital-services tax that it was set to impose on U.S. tech companies. The move will allow trade talks to reconvene, with officials saying that they hope to have a deal announced by July 21st. Related: Go ahead: Start celebrating a big quarter for stocks Second, will the Fed or won't the Fed raise rates at its July meeting? Over on TheStreet Pro, Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle reports that there is growing dissension among Fed governors over rate cuts. While Chair Powell prefers a wait and see approach, other members of the Federal Reserve Board are beginning to suggest that a rate cut is in order. Sarge also notes that Fed Futures are pricing in an 82% probability of no cut in July, but a 76% likelihood of a cut in September as well as high probabilities for additional cuts that could total 0.75% by year end. As the tax bill makes its way through the Senate, the prospect of lower taxes plus lower borrowing rates continues to push stocks higher. Related: Filthy Rich Animal's Question of the Week: Big Dogs vs. Small Dogs in the S&P 500 The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Miami Herald
05-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: Something Different: Here's Market Recon from TheStreet Pro's ‘Sarge' Guilfoyle
Happy Thursday. We're doing something a little different today. We're kicking off the Stock Market Today column with comments from Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle's daily Market Recon. This is the type of great analysis he provides every day over in TheStreet Pro. If the Pros don't trade blind-why should you? Cut through the noise with premium insights from TheStreet Pro It could have gotten ugly, one might have thought. The information started trickling out on Wednesday morning. It certainly wasn't pretty. There was no bouquet of flowers tossed down from on high to brighten the mood. There would be no aroma of freshly baked bread wafting across the street to disguise the wretched stench of decay. There would be no knight in shining armor that could arise from the shadows to defend the citizenry from their fears. Still, as the numbers hit publication... as viewpoints expressing pessimism spread ... equity markets hung in there, supported by demand for debt securities that suppressed yields. That suppressed interest rates. So, it was. So now, it has been written. Suddenly, after a spate of negative reports had taken stocks down from their early morning and mid-morning highs, bond traders started buying U.S. Treasuries. On Wednesday, the U.S. 10-Year note, our nation's benchmark debt security, went out paying just 4.36%, down 11 basis points for the day. The 2-Year Note yielded just 3.88% (-8 bps) by day's end. The prospect for lower interest rates going forward allowed stocks to breathe and hold their levels on a day that they might otherwise have suffered a bout of profit taking. Just a day after investors had seen the S&P 500 technically confirm last Thursday's bullish change of trend. Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report for May could still turn markets on their ear, Or not. The "big, beautiful bill" could pass. Or not. Talks between Pres. Trump and China's Pres. Xi could go well. Or not. Heads on a swivel, gang. Two sources of water. Clean socks. Full battle rattle. What impacted the markets on Wednesday? What's about to impact our marketplace? Let's go... Uh oh. On Wednesday morning, the ADP Report on private sector hiring for May showed just 37,000 jobs created during the month. This was the fewest jobs shown as having been created by this report for any single month in more than two years. This shows a deceleration from April's creation of 60,000 private sector jobs and badly missed the consensus view for 110,000 jobs created. This does not necessarily mean that Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics print will be weak, but it could. Anything this ugly on Friday will not pass unnoticed by investors. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index hit the tape at 49.9 (50 is the line in these surveys between expansion and contraction), just a few days after the ISM Manufacturing Index had crossed the tape at 48.5. The real worry for May is the component labeled "New Orders," which is the single most important item in any business survey. For the month New Orders printed at 46.4 for Services and 47.6 for Manufacturing. That's nasty. Inventories and Backlogged Orders both also showed decay. Didn't anything show expansion? Oh, you bet your tail something did. Inflation did. Prices printed at a red hot 68.7 for the services economy and a white hot 69.4 for the manufacturing economy. Does that mean that we'll see reacceleration of consumer level inflation for May? I would think this is likely. We'll almost certainly see that producer level inflation has come back to life. The Federal Reserve released their Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon. The Beige Book, for the new kids, is a central bank publication containing anecdotal economic information from across the Fed's 12 regional districts, released eight times a year ahead of policy decisions. The Fed will make its next decision on monetary policy on June 18. On overall economic activity: "Reports across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report. Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth." Boston... "Economic activity decreased slightly overall." New York... "Economic activity in the Second District continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty." Philadelphia... "Business activity declined modestly in the current Beige Book period, as it did in the last period." Minneapolis... "The District contracted slightly overall." Kansas City... "Overall activity declined moderately, driven by lower retail spending, a decline in the demand for single-family homes, and a slight contraction in manufacturing." San Francisco... "Economic activity slowed slightly." Elsewhere, Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago reported slight expansion, while Dallas, Cleveland and St. Louis reported no change in business activity. Fed Funds Futures markets trading in Chicago are now pricing in a 76% probability for a quarter-point rate cut on Sept. 17 and a 54% likelihood for another quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 29. That would be it for the year. Two more rate quarter-percentage point cuts are currently being priced in for 2026. The Congressional Budget Office, which is non-partisan, but not always correct, assessed the president's "big, beautiful bill" and reported on Wednesday its expectation that over 10 years the bill, if passed into law, would increase deficits by $2.4 trillion. There is a real concern over passage in the Senate now, with a number of fiscal conservatives fretting that the budget cuts in the bill don't go far enough and other senators showing dismay that these cuts go too far. I tend to agree with the fiscal hawks here, as that is my nature as an economist. That, my friends, is neither here nor there. What matters is that the U.S. Dollar Index traded lower on this news and that while Treasury securities showed strength due to weakness in the above economic news, that the long end of the spectrum of Treasury securities could become unanchored should the federal government continue to behave in a fiscally reckless manner. The weaker dollar would indeed be inflationary. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed essentially flat (+0.01%), while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.32% thanks to a 1.39% run made by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Marvell Technologies (MRVL) and ON Semiconductor (ON) led that group for the day. Otherwise, not a lot changed on Wednesday. The Dow Transports gave up 0.46%, while the small to midcap indices all gave back between 0.2% and 0.26%. Six of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed out Wednesday's regular session in the green, led by the Communication Services (XLC) fund that only gained 0.64%. While only five of these funds closed in the red, Energy (XLE) gave up 1.95% as exploration, refining and pipeline stocks all took a pounding, and the Utilities (XLU) gave back 1.75%. Winners beat losers on the NYSE on Wednesday by just three issues. This was largely a 50/50 split. Winners did lead losers at the Nasdaq by a 6-to-5 margin. Advancing volume did take a nifty 65.5% share of composite Nasdaq-listed trade on Wednesday, but just a 45.8% share of composite NYSE-listed activity. Most importantly, on a day-over-day basis, aggregate trade contracted across NYSE-listings by 5.2% and across Nasdaq-listed securities by 3.7%. Aggregate trade across the membership of the S&P 500 also fell 9% short of the trading volume 50-day simple moving average for the index on Wednesday after falling just 4% short of that line in the sand on Tuesday. Does this render Wednesday's market as less significant that it might otherwise be? In short, technically, the answer is "yes." Price discovery is always more meaningful and more impactful when increased trading volume implies increased professional participation. Readers will see just how incredibly accurate technical analysis has been through this recent period. On Wednesday, the index, though quiet, did build on Tuesday's confirmation of Thursday's change in trend. Is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) getting ready to make a serious run at industry leader Nvidia (NVDA) ? Is Lisa Su getting ready to make a serious run at Jensen Huang? Maybe. Check out these past few moves that largely flew under the radar: June 4th: AMD announces the acquisition of open-source software company Brium in an effort to further its prowess in generative artificial intelligence. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. May 28th: AMD announced the acquisition of silicon photonics company Enosemi to boost co-packaging and the firm's prowess in generative AI. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. May 20th: AMD announced the divestiture of its ZT Systems, which is a data center manufacturing company for $3 billion. But the firm retained ZT's 1,200-person engineering team at a cost of about $1.6 billion or $1.33 million per engineer. This should improve AMD's competitiveness in the data center GPU market. My Conclusion? AMD is back among my top 10 holdings when ranked by weighting (number 10) after a long hiatus. We skipped much of the 2024 decline. Our net basis is currently $99.91. I expect to continue to buy the stock on weakness when that opportunity arises going forward. Nvidia remains my 15th heaviest allocation. I have no plans to add. 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly):Expecting 230K, Last 229K. 08:30 - Continuing Claims (Weekly): Last 1.919M. 08:30 - Balance of Trade (Apr): Last $-140.5B. 08:30 - Non-Farm Productivity (Q1-F): Flashed -0.8% q/q. 08:30 - Unit Labor Costs (Q1-F): Flashed 5.7% q/q. 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly): Last +101B cf. 12:00 p.m. - Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler. 1:30 - Speaker: Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker. Before the Open: (CIEN) (.52) After the Close: (AVGO) (1.57), (DOCU) (.81), (LULU) (2.60) At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long AMD, NVDA equity. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Market Today: A choppy stock day; a tweet on China; inflation cools; Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir
Stock Market Today: A choppy stock day; a tweet on China; inflation cools; Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir originally appeared on TheStreet. It's a bit of a choppy morning on Wall Street. Stocks opened lower after the president tweeted that China had "totally violated its agreement with us." Breadth was weak, too, with 80% of S&P 500 stocks on the decline. At the same time, the index is well off the day's lows. As the heat map shows, it's a mixed day. In the upper right corner is Costco () . The warehouse-club retailer's shares are higher following yesterday's earnings and revenue report, which beat expectations. Although the reaction was muted in after-hours trading, the shares are up 3% on strong volume. This shouldn't be a surprise to members of TheStreet Pro. Our Bob Lang wrote Tuesday that Costco shares were primed to hit new highs following the earnings report. Costco is also viewed positively within TheStreet Pro's Portfolio, and although we don't currently own it there, it's a stock we would like to buy on pullbacks. Another stock that's up is the data-analytics-software provider Palantir () . That's a stock favored by TheStreet Pro's Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle. It's trading just below all-time highs. The New York Times reports that "Trump Taps Palantir to Compile Data on Americans" as part of his March executive order requiring data sharing across government agencies. At the same time, Sarge reports that he's taken some profits in Palantir and other tech names. He still likes the stock, but is a trader at heart. You won't go broke taking a profit! The weekend is almost here! We're expected to have a lovely one in Colorado. I hope yours will be similarly wonderful. I wasn't planning to start the day with a tweet, but let's do it. This has prompted what was a fairly flat market to drop today. As I write this, S&P futures are down 33 points. The Nasdaq is lower by 130, and crude oil is now down 52 cents after being about 70 cents higher. Here's an overnight chart of the S&P 500. It's hard to tell now if we're in for a wild ride today or whether traders are having a level of fatigue and will watch before making further reactions. In the meantime, we just got today's big economic news. The PCE Index, short for Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, is a measure of inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that April's PCE increased by $47.8 billion, or 0.2%, which was 2.1% higher than a year earlier but lower than the 2.3% expectation. In other words, inflation is cooling. The PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred benchmark for prices as it determines interest-rate policy. Premarket most actives include Nvidia () , which had been down as much 1.4% but is now 0.4% lower. Jim Cramer attributes the dip to "meme money," which, to be honest, is driving so much of our markets these days. And hey, while we're at it, let's talk Tesla () . Well, Elon Musk, actually. Today is expected to be the billionaire's last day in office as his official time with Doge comes to an end. Expect a news conference later this afternoon from the Oval Office with Musk and President Trump. However, the New York Times reports today that Musk used heavy amounts of drugs while on the campaign trail last fall with Trump. In fact, the paper reports, his use of ketamine was so great that he suffered from bladder problems, a known effect of chronic use. As Musk integrates himself back into Tesla leadership, shareholders will likely question him on this and it could become an issue. Stock Market Today: A choppy stock day; a tweet on China; inflation cools; Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir first appeared on TheStreet on May 30, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on May 30, 2025, where it first appeared. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
